Why tariffs pose a bigger risk to renewable energy than fossil fuels

, Senior Science and Economics Correspondent
Rystad Energy "Trump & Energy" report, second edition, April 2025. Shale refers to both oil and natural gas extracted from shale rock.

Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will likely hit the supply chains for wind and solar much harder than supply chains for fossil fuels.

Energy research company Rystad Energy shows this in the second edition of its “Trump and Energy” report, published in April, which analyzed supply chains for various fossil fuel and renewable sources of energy in the United States.

Virtually all — 90% — of capital expenditures associated with extracting oil and natural gas from shale rock, (a kind of layered sedimentary rock), was spent on domestically sourced parts, such as piping, Rystad said. By comparison, only 48% of capital expenditures associated with solar energy were for domestically sourced parts, such as modules and cables.

Trump has implemented wide-ranging, and constantly changing, tariffs on imports from foreign countries, making products originating in other countries more expensive — energy components included.

“Renewables are more exposed to those tariffs just because most of the components are being imported from abroad,” said Marina Domingues, the head of new energies for Rystad in the U.S.

China is a dominant supplier of renewable-energy parts.

“If you go back in time 15 years ago, it wasn’t like this,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad. At that time, American and European companies were leading the technology development of solar panels, Galimberti said.

But to reduce its dependency on imported fossil fuels, China invested heavily in wind and solar, and so “became the powerhouse of all the renewables,” Galimberti said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continued to grow its dominance in oil and gas — and the related supply chains.

But the tariffs could still negatively impact the country’s oil and gas sector, particularly if they drive the economy into a recession, said Galimberti.

“I don’t see any scenario in which tariffs can end up being good for any sector,” said Galimberti. “Let’s be blunt.”