What does Trump’s win mean for the energy transition? We asked these 7 experts

, Washington D.C. Correspondent
An illustration with a black and white photo of Trump in the center, the Capitol building behind him, and text boxes filled with clean energy icons all around him.
Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House as the 47th president of the United States, it is fair to ask what a second Trump term will mean for climate and clean energy initiatives both at home and abroad.

Energy independence has been a mainstay of Trump’s campaign, with his pledge to “lead the greatest economic comeback,” starting with an aggressive expansion of fossil fuels, including more offshore drilling.

“We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia,” Trump told a crowd of enthusiastic supporters in Palm Beach, Florida, upon learning he had won the election on November 6.

Still, leading climate and clean energy experts told Cipher they do not believe Trump will reject the business opportunities created in Republican states by the nation’s landmark climate legislation, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, responsible for nearly $400 billion in the form of tax credits and grants for cleantech investment.

With both demand for and production of energy surging, the experts Cipher spoke to agreed a Trump 2.0 administration may find common ground with Democrats on issues such as nuclear power, sustainable aviation fuels and permitting. At the same time, they predicted clean energy tax credits, such as those for electric vehicles, could be cut and new tariffs imposed, measures that would likely raise costs for American consumers and slow the transition to cleaner energy.

Responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Jeremy Harrell

CEO of ClearPath and ClearPath Action, DC-based conservative clean energy organizations

Next year will be pivotal for how the U.S. can produce more energy, make it affordable and keep it all clean. When you look at the big picture of what Congress and the Administration need to do — fix the broken permitting system, bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., accelerate technological innovation across sectors of the economy and grow new American nuclear here and abroad — the incoming Trump Administration already has a strong track record on those issues.

Gina McCarthy

Former EPA administrator and White House Climate Advisor under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden

No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country is not turning back.  I know we are all worried about the outcome of this election, but keep in mind that the bulk of these clean energy projects are operating or under construction in Republican districts. That means many — if not most — Republican members of Congress have been joining hundreds of business leaders at ribbon cuttings and groundbreaking ceremonies.  Because it is undeniably true that the IRA is good for businesses and good for all Americans, any attempted rollback of the IRA is a fool’s errand.

Jon Moore

CEO of BloombergNEF, an energy-focused research organization

With 18 Republican lawmakers publicly supporting the IRA’s core tax credits for fear of upending investments in their states and districts, the IRA legislation is potentially safe … However, the IRA is not everything. Most notably, a roll-back of fuel economy regulations (as President Trump did in his first term) could set back electric vehicle adoption substantially. And tariffs on key technologies could raise the costs of the energy transition across the board.

Alfred Johnson

CEO and co-founder of Crux, an energy tax credit marketplace

Tax credits for clean technologies are creating millions of construction, manufacturing and mining jobs across the country. This powerful industrial policy is already cultivating resilience to our energy infrastructure and domestic supply chains for minerals and manufactured components. Repealing the credits would raise the cost of energy for consumers and businesses, hurt workers and increase taxes on companies. Those outcomes are unlikely to be attractive to the Administration and Republicans in Congress.

Rose Mutiso

Research director of Energy for Growth Hub, a think tank focused on global energy access

With Donald Trump back in office, we will likely see the U.S. disengage from global climate initiatives and collaborations. However, the momentum behind U.S. cleantech development and manufacturing will likely persist, driven by the legislative legacy of the IRA and framed by opportunities in geopolitical competition and energy security. This could translate into a stronger push to deploy American cleantech solutions abroad, particularly in emerging markets where U.S. technology and engagement have previously lagged.

Jason Bordoff

Founding director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy

President Trump has made clear he will withdraw the U.S. from the United Nations climate change framework entirely. It will be difficult for the Biden administration in the next ~10 weeks to take any sort of bold steps on methane emissions or climate financing with the international community knowing that the U.S. government will shortly shift control to Republicans.

Even with Republican control, there may be bipartisan areas of agreement, such as the oil and gas industry’s commitments to curb methane emissions to demonstrate to global partners that U.S. natural gas can be cleaner. More importantly, mobilizing clean energy capital in allied countries is necessary to counter Chinese geostrategic influence over clean technologies.

Sandhya Ganapathy

CEO of EDP Renewables North America, renewable energy developer

We are confident that those elected will recognize the clean energy industry is a major driver of investment and jobs, especially for the landowners we work with, creating economic prosperity overall. We also expect increasing demand for electricity will continue to drive the demand for our company’s products and services, which we will work hard to meet.

The energy transition is still on — backed by demand for additional renewables deployment, strong economic momentum and global, ambitious policy action like the Inflation Reduction Act. We have more to do, especially when it comes to permitting, transmission and interconnection, but we’re proud of all we’ve accomplished in 2024, and we look forward to what 2025 will bring.

Interested in writing for Cipher about the incoming Trump administration? Email us your idea at news@ciphernews.com for the chance to be featured as a future author in our Voices section.

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story misstated the name of Crux’s CEO. It is Alfred Johnson.