Global electricity demand set to soar, but don’t blame artificial intelligence, IEA finds

, Executive Editor
, Washington D.C. Correspondent
Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2024 • Global energy data ranges from 1950 to 2023; data projection from 2024 to 2050 uses IEA's "STEPS" scenario, which is based on current policies. Energy is defined in exajoules, the equivalent of 34.12 million metric tons of coal. Clean energy includes renewables, modern bioenergy, nuclear, abated fossil fuels, low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. Other includes traditional use of biomass and non-renewable waste.

Global demand for electricity is set to soar in the coming years as the world transitions to cleaner energy that is largely reliant on such power systems, the International Energy Agency (IEA) writes in its flagship report released Wednesday.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol wrote that this was one of the most “striking” findings of the annual report. The equivalent of the electricity use of the world’s 10 largest cities is projected to be added to global demand each year, Birol writes.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and the corresponding growth in data centers are universally hot topics, but the IEA writes that their impact on the electricity system is not large compared to other demands, such as air conditioning. What’s more, AI could have positive impacts on energy innovation and management.

“Rising data centre electricity use, linked in part to growing use of AI, is already having some strong local impacts, but the potential implications of AI for energy use are broader and include improved systems coordination in the power sector and shorter innovation cycles,” the agency writes in the report.

A search query finds at least 13 mentions of “artificial intelligence” in this report, compared to zero in last year’s report.

More broadly, the agency reiterated earlier projections that demand for oil, natural gas and coal are poised to all peak by 2030. Additionally, IEA writes that by then the global economy could keep growing without using additional fossil fuels. “This has not been the case in recent years,” the agency notes, referring to how two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand in 2023 was met by fossil fuels.

Given the rapid rate of development, IEA warns, “clean energy has to work harder to displace oil, gas and coal in emerging market and developing economies than in advanced economies.”

China, technically classified as an emerging economy, is the world’s leading consumer of both fossil fuels and renewable energy. China’s economic engine has driven the global growth in energy demand and now is driving the push toward electrification.

“We are now in a world where almost every energy story is essentially a China story,” said Birol in a statement accompanying the report.

The agency always notes how uncertainty affects its projections, and this year perhaps even more so with elections affecting 72 countries, which collectively account for half of global energy demand, IEA writes.

Such political “uncertainty may deter energy investment,” the agency writes, “particularly in large-scale projects in new or emerging technologies that are particularly sensitive to policy and regulatory changes.”