As Trump is sworn in, fossil fuels are already booming

, Washington D.C. Correspondent
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics • Includes domestic production of crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gain. UAE = United Arab Emirates. Data current as of April 2024.

The long and steady arc of changing energy systems is a humbling reminder of the limited power American presidents have over this sector, despite the political rhetoric coming out of Washington.

The four charts you see here show a contrasting and evolving energy picture. The United States has become the world’s dominant oil and natural gas producer over the last decade. It is now adopting renewable energy with the same fervor as oil and gas, boosted by a range of state and federal policies.

To that end, the first three charts don’t show a demonstrable difference between Democratic and Republican administrations. Indeed, the U.S. has been the world’s top producer of oil since 2018 and natural gas since 2011, a turning point that officially occurred during Barack Obama’s presidency.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration • Data includes first seven months of 2024.

Oil and gas production was boosted by the practice of fracking, which the federal government did have a hand in decades ago with early subsidies and research dollars.

Such context is a helpful reminder as Donald Trump begins his second term in the Oval Office today and seeks to make good on his promises to aggressively expand U.S. oil and natural gas production. The U.S. has already been doing that for the last 15 years.

In fact, the Trump administration’s policies are likely to have little impact on production, which will continue to be driven more by economics and commodity prices, according to an S&P Global Ratings outlook for next year. And any impact, like those of past administrations, may take years to show up.

The U.S. produced nearly twice as much oil, biofuels and petroleum products as Saudi Arabia, the next highest global producer, in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) statistics.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration • The EIA chart tracks daily average production of dry natural gas through October 2024. Dry natural gas goes directly to the consumer and excludes liquids derived from this commodity.

The U.S. also remains the world’s largest natural gas producer, EIA said. Production dipped slightly in 2024 due to lower prices and drilling activity, according to the EIA.

Demand for U.S. oil and gas has increased abroad in recent years amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and at home as electricity demand has spiked, due in part to the buildout of data centers for artificial intelligence.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 2024 Monthly Energy Review, November Electric Generator Report • Wind, solar and battery storage projects represent at least 1 MW of operating capacity.

Even renewable energy, which has been traditionally more reliant on government policy than fossil fuels, has still steadily risen in recent decades and didn’t show a demonstrable dip during Trump’s first term in office. You can see the increase under Joe Biden, owing to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

In recent days, Trump has said he will develop policy “to make sure no new windmills are built” because the nation doesn’t need energy from a resource that requires a subsidy. Whether his rhetoric translates into an actual rollback of renewables remains to be seen, but historical precedent would suggest it won’t.