Efforts to expand energy access in Africa at risk with new geopolitical headwinds

, Chief Europe Correspondent
Source: International Energy Agency • Sub-Saharan Africa excludes South Africa. Developing Asia includes countries in the Asia Pacific except Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. 2024 data goes until October, as full year data is not yet available.

Hundreds of millions of people gained access to electricity over the last 15 years around the world, but population growth and tight financing have slowed this trend in recent years, especially in Africa.

While the road to electrification in developing countries has always been challenging, current geopolitical dynamics, including decreasing development aid and falling green investments globally, risk making universal energy access even more elusive going forward.

In a sign of the times, U.S. President Donald Trump moved to shut down a key organization supporting power projects around the world, the U.S. Agency for International Development, during his first six weeks in office.

The number of people without access to electricity dropped from 1.4 billion in 2010 to 737 million in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. But progress has been unequal around the world.

The most severe shortfall persists in sub-Saharan Africa, where, between 2020 and 2023, population growth exceeded new connections in many countries, the IEA writes. While connections have picked up again, the trend over the last 15 years has remained largely flat for the region, as the chart above shows. About 80% of people without electricity live in sub-Saharan Africa today, or almost 600 million people.

Overall, global gains remain “well below pre-2020 levels,” the IEA said.

As the U.S. steps back, Europe may be stepping up. Following a meeting with World Bank President Ajay Banga earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union will align funding from a separate initiative with the objectives of Mission 300, a program by the World Bank and the African Development Bank designed to accelerate energy access across the region.

Meanwhile, the IEA found more than half a billion people have gained access to electricity in Asia since 2010.