China on track to dominate nuclear energy

, Senior Science and Economics Correspondent
Source: The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, from the International Energy Agency

Add one more clean-energy technology China is set to dominate: nuclear power.

China leads, by far, in nuclear energy capacity under construction, as the above chart shows. And within five years, it is forecasted to overtake the United States and Europe to be “the number one nuclear power in the world,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said alongside the recent release of a new report on the technology.

Despite having the world’s biggest existing nuclear industry and leading in the sector since the 1970’s, the U.S. has no reactors under construction right now, which explains its absence in the chart.

Nuclear energy will reach new heights in 2025, with countries making the biggest commitment since the oil crisis in the 1970s, Birol said. More than 40 countries have “concrete plans and projects” to start and grow their nuclear fleets this year, he noted.

China building nuclear is good for tackling climate change, said Katy Huff, a nuclear engineering professor at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign who also served a stint in the U.S. Energy Department’s Office of Nuclear Energy. “Every reactor built is a fossil plant avoided,” Huff said.

At the same time, the influence that comes with being the global leader is significant.

“When the United States led the world in nuclear energy deployment, our nation was able to lead by example, setting high standards,” Huff said. “Losing that leadership position has the potential to reduce our ability to influence the norms that pivotally impact global nuclear security.”

Leadership also comes with economic advantages. China’s industry dominance could translate into a “competitive advantage” in exporting nuclear reactors and fuel, said Daniel Poneman, a co-chair of the Nuclear Energy and National Security Coalition, an organization focused on the relationship between the U.S. nuclear energy industry and national security, and a former deputy secretary of the Energy Department.

The chart also shows Russia’s dominance in global exports of nuclear reactors, a trend underway for some time that gives Russia influence over “nuclear safety, security and nonproliferation standards,” said Matt Bowen, a senior research scholar focusing on nuclear energy at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

U.S. nuclear is expected to gain new momentum in coming years as it competes with China to develop the burgeoning — and energy hungry — artificial intelligence industry.

“If we’re going to win the AI race with China, we’re going to need to build a wide range of new generation,” said John Kotek, senior vice president of policy and public affairs at the Nuclear Energy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that there are no reactors under construction in the U.S. right now.